Episode 151 - The Pivotal Year 2020
Max and Aaron look at the episodes, topics, and stories that have been covered on the Local Maximum in the year 2020, some thoughts on the podcast itself, and hopes for 2021.
Transcript
Max Sklar: You're listening to Local Maximum Episode 151.
Time to expand your perspective. Welcome to The Local Maximum. Now here's your host, Max Sklar.
Max Sklar: Well, you've reached another Local Maximum. Welcome to the show. Aaron, how are you doing today? I was gonna say, how are you doing this year?
Aaron: Yes, let's not open with that one. Today is good, though.
Max: Yes, today is good.
Aaron: I mean, it is good through the Christmas holiday, taking some much needed downtime.
Max: We're going to do a walkthrough of this year, the year 2020 in The Local Maximum. And as I looked through, I realized we talked about a lot of stuff this year.
Aaron: It's been a long year. It feels longer than every other year.
Max: It’s been a long year. And we had the same number of episodes we've done every year.
Aaron: Time is definitely dilated.
Max: Yes. So up first, some general thoughts about this year in terms of The Local Maximum, I feel like I wish we had expanded harder this year. But as I look back, it's like just surviving and just being able to keep up that one episode a week pace that we have come to, I guess guarantee on The Local Maximum is kind of—I've got to call that a victory this year. Because just getting through this year, and being able to keep up with high-quality content has been a struggle. And the fact that we've met it is just, we should look back and be proud of ourselves. If we do say so ourselves.
Aaron: I think it's fair to take a mini victory lap on that one that. We maybe didn't see the growth in listener numbers that we were initially projecting 12 months ago. But...
Max: Yes, that’s it.
Aaron: ...the number of other people listening to a podcast does not necessarily equate to the quality for the individual listeners.
Max: No.
Aaron: So, I think we've managed to continue delivering some quality episodes in spite of everything else going on.
Max: Right, right there.
Aaron: And sometimes because of everything else going on.
Max: Right. Yes, exactly as we'll get to in a second. But there's a few things that I could have done on that, which we'll talk about what we're doing next year But really, this year was just about trying to maintain some semblance of normalcy as everything was going on around us. And so that was where I focused most. But I think we did a lot of setting up this year.
So I think what we're gonna do, this is kind of a sort of a meta episode, where we're just going to go through and talk about some of our favorite episodes from 2020. And maybe you guys listening, if any of these sounds interesting to you, and you want to go back, you could always go to the archive, localmaxradio.com/archive. And you can see all the past episodes of The Local Maximum also in your podcatcher. But that archive page actually kind of lays it all out, so you could search it very easily. And so that is available to you. Also, I'll try to link to all the episodes that we talked about, on the show notes page here, localmaxradio.com/151.
But there's going to be so much, it's not like I have three references, like I usually do this is going to have a lot. So let's talk about a few of the themes and episodes that because there's certain topics that we've come back to over and over again.
The first one that I want to mention is probably the biggest guest I've ever had on The Local Maximum was Dave Rubin, way back—that was this year, which seems crazy. That was way back in Episode 103. And he has—I want to say like one of the biggest podcasts, maybe not—I don't know if it's one of the biggest, it probably is. It's a pretty big deal, his podcast. And it is a political podcast, he's starting Locals, which is sort of the thing we've been on, which is well, not to bury the lead here.
So I interviewed him in 103, about starting Locals, which was kind of an alternative social network, and then jumped ahead at the end of the year to Episode 147. And we've announced that we've gone on Locals. Not only that, but we've secured the URL maximum.locals.com, which I can't get over. So I think that's kind of a good way to bookend this year of 2020. What do you think?
Aaron: Yes, we went from that...
Max: Full circle.
Aaron: ...initial interview to being in the ecosystem and building the Local there in less than a year and certainly hoping to see some expansion on that as we go.
Max: Yes, we have been expanding our content online. First of all, we've added transcripts to the episodes show notes pages. So, that's been a pretty big deal and...
Aaron: Was that something we'd started doing before this year? Or was that a 2020 innovation as well?
Max: That was 2020 innovation. Also, adding all these questions to the website. Now, I kind of have special pages on localmaxradio.com/questions, where I answer some questions. A lot of them are technical questions, but they don't have to be. And now, the number one way people get to the website through Google is by searching probability simplex. Why? I don't know. I think we're the only ones who competently describe what a probability simplex is. So, that's pretty cool.
Aaron: Yes, and I know some of this is stuff that we've talked about on the show. But some of it, like the probability simplex isn't something we've dedicated an episode to. But if you have a question out there that you're dying to hear Max address in detail, then maybe it too could be a special page on localmaxradio.com.
Max: Well now that everyone's searching for probability simplex, maybe we should do an episode on it. Because apparently, people are searching for it.
So okay, another theme that was—this segues well into, I could tell this is gonna be a great show. You know why? Because we're recording this at midnight. And these always turn out to be the best episodes. So you guys better keep with me. Nobody knows what we're gonna say.
So, one of the themes early on in this year was examining probability- what is probability? What does it mean? It's not a straightforward question, what are the different interpretations of probability? There's the objective interpretation, there's subjective interpretation. What have people said about this in the past, there's Bayesian, and frequentist, and kind of going through all that.
And I remember, back then we had just a string of extremely fascinating guests. We had Sophie Carr, who was talking about Bayesian inference. We had Bob Murphy talking about Austrian economics. Adam Kapelner, talking about experimental design theory. And then Brian Blais, once again, coming back around to Bayesian inference. I did a solo episode on it, Episode 108. And then I did a talk on it at the PyMCon conference that was virtual this year in Episode 145. So, I think Adam Kapelner was the last episode where the world was normal. So that makes it kind of memorable. He was actually the last guest I had in the Foursquare office, guests have since been banned.
So that I feel like I am much smarter on that topic for having done those episodes. And if anyone's interested in becoming an expert on that topic, just listening to those six episodes that I mentioned, those four guests and those two solo shows, you can become an expert, too.
Aaron: As an aside, you mentioned having a guest in the office for that interview.
Max: Yes.
Aaron: I know not all of your interviews, previous to the pandemic, had been in person. But have we learned anything new about conducting remote interviews over the course of 2020?
Max: That's a good question.
Aaron: Has it changed how you've structured the show at all?
Max: I kind of prefer in-person interviews, but you can't always get what you prefer.
Aaron: Yes.
Max: I remember last year in 2019, when I drove up to Great Barrington, Massachusetts to interview Jeff Tucker. And maybe I didn't have to do that, but I had the time to do it. It was just so much fun to do. And it was kind of cool to see that town and...
Aaron: So it only just occurred to me that that was at Great Barrington. This is the organization which is part of there. Are they at all affiliated with the Great Barrington Declaration?
Max: Yes.
Aaron: Or was that a complete coincidence? Okay.
Max: No, it's not a coincidence. It was I don't think it is.
Aaron: So, they put those people together in a room to facilitate?
Max: And it was that room that I was in interviewing him. So, I guess that's cool.
Aaron: Sometimes, I'm slow on the pickup, but I get there eventually.
Max: No, I mean, there was like a big giant castle there that the AIER has. I don't know how they have it. But that, yes. So, I don't know if we talked about the Great Barrington Declaration on the show. Have we?
Aaron: I don't know whether we have a specifically.
Max: Okay, so that is a bunch of documents that a bunch of doctors signed, an epidemiologist saying that the lockdown strategy is—they're descending from the lockdown strategy, and that occurred in Great Barrington in that same giant castle. I mean, look, if you're gonna sign a big document in Great Barrington, of course, you're going to go to the big castle, where else would you do it? The Great Barrington diner?
Aaron: “The Hilton Down the Street Declaration” doesn't sound nearly as impressive.
Max: So yes, there are benefits doing it in person. I like to meet the person. Whereas if you do them kind of through online, whether it's through Zoom, they kind of they appear, you don't really have a chance to talk to them as much. So, it's not as good. But, it does the trick. And you can get more guests that way.
Aaron: Yes, for sure.
Max: So, it's all right. I prefer coming to the guests. Like I used to go to people's offices and things like that. And that was fun. I felt like I made more meaningful connections that way, but it is what it is. I don't know what else to say.
Aaron: It might be a while before that becomes a viable path in the future.
Max: Except they might have me back at AIER because they're all against the lockdown. So, I could go to their castle again. All right. It's not really a castle, but it's a giant—I don't know how to describe it.
Okay, so whatever theme. Well, obviously COVID was a theme this year, probably the biggest one. So the earliest reference that I could find to it, we had a discussion about it in Episode 104, which was all the way back and February 3rd. So that is really interesting. And I went back to listen to our discussion about it. And it didn't age poorly, which I'm proud of.
And in fact, our first episode, where it was really hitting the fan, in Episode 110. That was like our first big, that was the week where everything was just going crazy with it. And we were like, “Oh my God, we have to do a show.” I'm sure you remember that week very well. And we were talking about the Diamond Princess cruise. And we're trying to take what happened on the cruise and extrapolate it to what's going to happen in the country. And I feel like we were more right doing that than most of the prognosticators, anyway. So, we did a pretty good job on that. And basically all of the 110s we were talking about COVID. And then I think after 10 episodes, I decided, let's try to have episodes that were not about COVID.
Aaron: Yes, between COVID fatigue and needing to establish some sense of normalcy outside of that.
Max: Right. So I was like, okay, so 110s we’ll devote to COVID. And then in Episode 120, was when all the riots were happening. So that's like, right? From one end to the other.
The most memorable one of that, I think, was the solo show I did. It might have been 115, where I was going through how epidemiological models work, and how they were projecting COVID cases and all that. And that one was a very difficult one to do. There was a lot of research that was involved in that one. But I'm pretty proud of how it came out.
Aaron: I can't imagine very many people out there read—beyond the abstracts for some of those papers, if they read that far. So having someone who's done the homework come explain it is a valuable service there.
Max: Yes. It's very good when we do the homework. We didn't do any homework today other than reading the archive.
Aaron: We’re winging it, people.
Max: Yes, well, no, that's good too sometimes. Okay, and we even had our prediction panel under quarantine with—do you remember which one our prediction panel was on? I'm trying to remember. I don't think it was in the 110s. It might have been after that. No, it might have been in the 110s, let's see. The prediction panel. Yes, that was Episode 113.
Aaron: Okay.
Max: So that was right at the beginning of it. Right. So basically, we had my kind of annual tech retreat, which was the tech retreat from your living room, which hopefully will never happen again. It will actually be a retreat going somewhere next time. And we were—and by the way, the first retreat we had back in Episode 38. That's the only time you and I have done an episode where we were in the same room. Just as fun fact.
Aaron: It’s kind of crazy to think about. Yes.
Max: Yes, I have a feeling that in 2021 we'll have some episodes where we are actually in-person together. I just have a—call it a clairvoyant, see-your-type situation. I don't know. Maybe not all of them, but I think we'll have some. It's just a guess. I don't know where I'm getting that from.
But so I don't even remember everything we predicted in that panel or most of the things we predicted that panel, but it's definitely going to be colored by the fact that we had just been—none of this was supposed to happen. We were supposed to go somewhere we were planning on going to, I don't know, Rhode Island or something.
Aaron: Yes.
Max: Or Long Island we were planning, going to, to the Hamptons or something like that. And this thing happened, that has never happened before in our lifetime. And it was like, “Okay.” I feel like when you make predictions under those circumstances, you're gonna get some interesting stuff because we were just all in shock. So it'll be cool to come back to that we're actually to come back to that. I guess it would be in the what—in the spring of 2021.
Aaron: Yes, and I'm just looking at the show notes here. And obviously, two factors that were, I think heavily influenced by what was going on around us, then we're telemedicine and urbanization.
Max: Right.
Aaron: The virtual reality topic seems a little—that probably has a little bit more to do with some kind of business and technology reports that have come out around then. But the last question I see there on our list is, ”How long will we be stuck in our homes?” And I'm really curious to see when we go back at the next retreat and grade some of our predictions there and how we did on them.
Max: It's kind of an open question, because stuck in our homes is kind of a—because we did open up pretty quickly.
Aaron: Yes, there's some wiggle room because I...
Max: But then we soon realized that the open up was not as open as we would have liked.
Aaron: Right. And there's still people who were saying that, “Well, you can call it a lockdown. But technically there were so many exceptions to the lockdown that nobody was really locked down.”
Max: Yes.
Aaron: So there's a lot of latitude in how you answer that question, which means that we did a poor job in clarifying the question in terms of what the payouts are gonna be there.
Max: Oh, come on. I mean, it's just...
Aaron: There's no money on the line. Just our reputations.
Max: Yes, just our reputations and honor. Okay, hold down the drain. No, I think...
Aaron: Rifles at dawn.
Max: ...I think we're going to come out looking fine. That's my prediction. So let's see what else happened this year?
A lot happened on the AI front. We talk a lot about AI on the program. But things truly did move ahead on the artificial intelligence front this year, while no one was looking, which is pretty cool. A lot of progress has been made in deepfakes. And then of course, and that's been kind of a developing story since the beginning of The Local Maximum. And then we have to talk about the ethics of that,what if you can kind of impersonate someone online? We talked about—a lot about language models, GPT-3 from OpenAI. That's done very well, and Google's language models.We talked about some philosophical questions like what's the difference between Modeling Language statistically and understanding a language? Can you build a machine that understands the language? We went through that in Episode 135. That was a fascinating discussion.
I talked about the hype cycle with Christian Hubbs, who's really great on this stuff. So Lisa Palmer, that was more recently. Some of the lesser-known applications of AI, I guess, you could say, like the real-time data stuff.
And then some of the social and political implications, like online privacy with Naomi Brockwell. There was the Timnit Gebru story at Google, where an AI ethics researcher was fired or let go or resigned. And there's all this, all these questions about that. And then, of course, Seth Stephens-Davidowitz on his book from a couple years ago on how Google Search data is kind of creepily telling too much about us. Or it's like, you can kind of tell how many people are gonna go berserk by how many searches you have in a given area. All that crazy stuff and all the creepy things that people search for.
Aaron: Well, that kind of hints forward to a topic we're gonna touch on shortly. But polling is so bad because most of that is dependent on how people actually answer questions. And we again had an election where polling didn't necessarily live up to expectations and...
Max: Right.
Aaron: ...it's because maybe we're lying to ourselves as much as we're lying to the pollsters. But big data knows the real answer.
Max: Sometimes it does. Yes, sometimes it doesn't. Sometimes it does. Yes, let's get and then let's jump to it. Let's talk about the election coverage.
I had Alex Andorra again, on to talk about polling. I went into some of the mathematics of polling and prediction markets. Because to talk about the mathematical concept of martingale, I'm not talking—I'm not going to get into that right now. But go to our martingale episode, if you want to learn—actually that's a good one for me to give the episode number, martingale Episode 136. Very good vocab term if you're talking about prediction markets.
And we talked about the election in general, we talked about electoral systems, the Electoral College, social media censorship. New York City is experimenting with a new electoral system this year, the ranked choice voting. And it's only going to be done in the Democratic primary, which almost defeats the purpose. But that's what they're doing.
Aaron: And I think, we got that here in Massachusetts as well.
Max: Yes.
Aaron: I'm curious to see when that actually kicks in for real the first time.
Max: Yes, it will this year in 2021, in New York City. So the election was pretty fun to do. And I'm very glad about how—like we promised to drop it after the election. And I basically kept that promise. So I'm very happy about that.
Aaron: Yes, I mean, there's certainly been more going on in that space, but not much that I feel that we have a lot to add on. So...
Max: Yes, I mean, hot button, political and social topics. We still get into, just not the election. Like, the politicization of science and technology and work. That has been a theme—I think, a big theme this year.
Aaron: Yes, absolutely. And then something that's not new, but that definitely feels like it's been growing.
Max: Yes. There was that article that Lawrence Krauss wrote, I think it was in the Wall Street Journal where we talked about how science is becoming very politicized. Obviously, the Timnit Gebru story at Google was extremely politicized. All the diversity initiatives, and then people kind of fighting for control of the narrative. And it's like, “Can you really sit idly by as a bystander and not get hit as an innocent bystander with some of this stuff?” It's something that I worry about at work. And I feel like it's something that could happen to anyone.
Aaron: Yes it's definitely a little bit of a landmine of an issue.
Max: Yes. So, all right. Before we have a few other things to mention. But before we move forward, let me just jump on you with this, will put you on the spot with this question. Do you have a favorite episode from this year?
Aaron: I don't know if it's my favorite. But it's definitely the one that stuck in my mind the most. And that would be the episode we did talking about, topology. Right?
Max: Oh, I'm so glad you mentioned that. I loved that one.
Aaron: I think it was the visual of like turning a three-dimensional space inside out. And I probably have something wrong about that. But that makes that episode stick right in my head.
Max: Yes. Well, did you listen to the follow-up interview I did with Tai-Danae a few weeks ago?
Aaron: I did. Yes.
Max: Yes. Well, I think we already went over it. So she had some really good follow-ups on that. But those people like her who go really deep into that topic, they must have some insane intuitions and images in their head about what's really going on.
Aaron: Yes, it's like the people who can visualize six-dimensional space, they're out there.
Max: Yes.
Aaron: I don't know what's wrong with their heads, but they're out there.
Max: Yes. Now, I'm not sure that they necessarily have to do that. But they definitely look at the world differently. We also started out with a mathematical episode, very beginning of the year. It talks about induction, which is a good kind of logic. A good topic in logic, inductive logic, inductive reasoning. So that was Episode 102.
I've been surprised that a lot of people have asked for more math episodes. I sort of thought the math episodes were just for me. It's just stuff that I like. And since it's my show, I'm gonna do it. But I was surprised to learn that people actually want more of it. And they're like, “Hey, if I understand 60% of it, I'm good with the episode. It was worth it for me.”
Aaron: I would say those episodes probably aren't the type of things that I'm going to use that information in my daily life. But I definitely come away from thinking “Well, that was pretty cool.”
Max: Okay, let's look at some other themes that we had this year. Extraterrestrials? There's only one episode.
Aaron: Maybe they're out there.
Max: Yes, I know. There was only one episode where we talked about aliens and that was that gas on Venus. Was that the phosphate?
Aaron: Yes.
Max: Like Oh, yes. All right. So maybe there's aliens in Venus, but there have been other stories about aliens this year that have completely been buried in whatever else we're dealing with in 2020.
Aaron: Yes, the two big ones I can think of are the Pentagon released a bunch of reports that had been previously classified from I think, it was a division under the Office of Naval Intelligence, which is the shorthand for it is the UFO group. But basically, with recordings of these unidentified flying objects that have been observed and tracked by Navy and Air Force pilots. So it’s...
Max: So, could those just be illusions?
Aaron: I mean, they're not saying it's aliens.
Max: Yes.
Aaron: Bur...
Max: Not saying it's aliens, but kind of aliens or...
Aaron: Exactly. They're not saying it's aliens, but they are saying that, yes, these are things that have actually been observed. And it's not crazy Uncle Joe, out in the boonies. These are professional pilots who are extremely well trained and disciplined. And I'm sure that they went through a thorough medical examination and made them pee in a cup.
Max: Right.
Aaron: And make sure they weren't on any illicit substances the moment they landed. So it's, again, nothing about this implies that it's aliens. But there's something going on there that folks don't fully understand, which is a very interesting question, after all these years to have some confirmation that there's weirdness going on out there.
Max: There was also that really strange article going around earlier this month. That said, this former Israeli space chief said that the governments of the world are in contact with aliens. And Trump knows about it, but he isn't saying anything. And then you read the comments, and they're like, “This is not a credible story. Trump definitely would say something.”
Aaron: Yes, I feel like that's the biggest hole in that. But the one other thing that came to mind on the extraterrestrial front is the Arecibo radio receiver dish collapsed maybe a month ago.
Max: What is that?
Aaron: So it was a big radio telescope dish down in Puerto Rico. It was a—well, obviously now that it's collapsed, it isn't there any longer but it was many years ago, it was kind of the crown jewel of the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence organization, listening for signals from outer space. And I believe it had a starring role as a supporting actor in GoldenEye.
Max: Oh, I’ve heard of it.
Aaron: So, most people of our generation have seen it.
Max: Yes.
Aaron: And they now have a vivid picture in their mind of exactly what we're talking about. But yeah, that was that big telescope between everything else going on this year, some of the structural supports gave way and it collapsed.
Max: Oh, so it wasn't that it was listening to aliens. And it was like...
Aaron: They knew too much.
Max: ...the message was too much and it collapsed. Now, I think I tend to view these stories with a lot of skepticism. I think the gas on Venus is interesting because I do think—this is just my impression of like the science that I've read and of studying just based on like all the reading that I've done is that there is a, kind of, non-zero chance that, a significant chance that the solar system and the galaxy is teeming with microbial life, which would be very exciting. We just don't know how common that is. And so that Venus story then becomes very interesting.
In terms of aliens being here now, like smart extraterrestrials, I don't know. There's so much crazy stuff that could just happen just from what's on Earth. That it seems like, my priors on that don't really go up very much when these stories come out. But that's just me.
Aaron: I could understand.
Max: I tend to remain skeptical until there's something more substantial than visual lights that are moving too fast or something like that.
Aaron: I put it in the same mental box as the what if we're all living in a simulation that...
Max: Yes.
Aaron: ...we can have that discussion, but I'm not going to use it to direct any of my short, medium, or long term actions.
Max: Yes. I mean, if anyone out there wants to give me reason to take this stuff more seriously, then, by all means, make your case. I'm happy to talk about it. It's—no, I'd love to talk more about these stories on the show. I just, I don't like to be a debunker. It could be like some technology from some foreign country or could just be, like, the light is following us. It could be the reflection of your own vehicle. I mean, that's happened to me before. Just saying.
Aaron: I'm trying to think back and maybe it's because of the type of guests that you choose to invite on the show. Or accept when they asked to come on the show.
Max: Yes.
Aaron: But, I can't recall you having a guest who you've had a serious, on the show conflict with, where you've disputed something they've said or gotten into an argument.
Max: That’s a good observation. And I could have argued with people, but I didn't. And I know it kind of makes a good show when you argue with people more, but it's also like, I respect the people's time that I have on the show, and they're giving me their time and energy and to come on, and I don't want to be too hostile. I'll ask them some questions. And sometimes if I get something that doesn't make a whole lot of sense, I'll ask a few follow up questions. But I don't know, I don't want to have a debate or a fight.
I used to listen to a lot of talk radio where they'd have guests on and yell at them. And that made a lot of people listen to it. I don't know if that's the direction I want to go. Particularly with the podcast format. There's just too much. Some of these guests are really hard to get, and it's not worth bringing them on just to yell at them.
Aaron: Yes, certainly not if that's—they would have to be expecting that kind of an interaction for that to work in a sustainable way.
Max: Right. Are there times when you think I should have done that?
Aaron: I can't think of any. like I said, it may have more to do with the types of topics and the types of guests that you've had on that you don't tend to bring on people who are significantly oppositional to...
Max: Well now, there were some guests that I know, I have significant differences with in various issues.
Aaron: But that wasn't necessarily on the topics that you were discussing with them.
Max: Right. I kind of talked about different topics with them. Now, that's absolutely true. I don't know what else to say about that, other than—well, I don't know. Do you think people want more of a kind of conflict there?
Aaron: I mean, I think it would be really interesting. If we got some conflicts on some of the nerdier content here, and I don't even know what form that would take. But, I'd be very interested in hearing knockdown throwdown fight between some frequencists and some Bayesians on topics that they're passionate about. Not a mudslinging thing, but really and I think we've tried to steel man arguments when we haven't necessarily subscribed to them logically. But sometimes having someone there who not only understands but truly believes that side of it can make for some interesting discussion.
Max: Yes.
Aaron: I don't know if that's necessarily what our listeners are looking for. But, just spitballing.
Max: No, I mean, some arguments or debates would actually be a lot of fun. The thing is, like, when you hold the debate, you should have a moderator. And so it's like if I wanted to debate someone else, I should bring a moderator on, or I should be the moderator between a debate between two people. And now all of a sudden, you're dealing with three schedules instead of two. But I don't—Bayesian vs frequentist would be a fun one.
Aaron: I guess what I’m saying...
Max: There are definitely some more of it if... Sorry, go ahead.
Aaron: What I guess I'm saying that is that we need to get you on the Soho Forum with someone to debate against.
Max: Well, yes, I mean, that was a fun one to watch with Anthony Samara. That was a lot of fun going to Soho Forum and watching him debate that topic. And it was a good-natured debate. Sometimes I go to the Soho Forum, and they hate each other, which is always a lot of fun. But I mean, that's another sad thing that we lost this year 2020. Soho Forum, we didn't lose it permanently. But it certainly hasn't been going on to the extent there have been a few online debates. But it's not the same.
And it would also be interesting to debate some of these hot button social issues. And I think I can debate them in a way where I don't put myself at too much risk of getting into trouble. But I don't know, like the whole question of ethics in AI, or how much should an AI researcher use their position to promote social values? I feel like there is a good debate to be had in there. But it will devolve into mudslinging, which could be a lot of fun. I'm happy to do it. But I don't know how to get that started. I don't know how to set that up. Like, who would we be willing to debate me? And what would be the debate? What’s the—it's the debate question is what it's called. It's like the proposition of the debate?
Aaron: Yes. that's it. Yup.
Max: Yes. So I don't know what the proposition would be for that one. And who I would debate, but I'm happy to debate anyone that someone on that. That would be fun. I've actually never participated in a formal debate in my life. So I could get my ass kicked the first time.
Aaron: Did our high school have a debate team? I don't even recall.
Max: I think it did.
Aaron: Neither of us were on it.
Max: No. You could have been on it, you probably would have been pretty good on there. But I guess it wasn't—I probably would have been interested in it if I knew about it. But I think I only heard about it through rumors. Like it's one of those things that...
Aaron: Very cloak and dagger.
Max: Yes, I think it might have been called, like political clubs. So I didn't really go, or like, Student Government club. Like, stay far away from that. But, now you got me thinking that we should...
Aaron: Yesh, it’s something to keep in the back of our mind for…
Max: Yes.
Aaron: 2021 goals is maybe some new formats, episodes. New episode formats.
Max: Okay, a debate format. Yes, that can be fun. Okay, other themes, all the craziness in New York City. Certainly, when all of the protests started, and then there was all the kind of vandalism and riots in my neighborhood.
Aaron: And interestingly enough, New York was not the source of this like...
Max: No.
Aaron: I mean, there have been plenty of political movements and protests that kind of started off in New York, probably the most famous one, was it—What was the one that was, “We are the 99%?”
Max: Occupy Wall Street.
Aaron: Occupy Wall Street. Thank you.
Max: Yes, I was there. I wasn't part of Occupy Wall Street. But like, I definitely went down to Zuccotti Park and checked it out every once in a while when it was going on.
Aaron: But it seated elsewhere across the country, but certainly New York was not without its sympathetic factor.
Max: No, and I think what was going on in New York was not just the George Floyd protests. I mean, there's a lot of other stuff going on at the same time. Crime has been going up steadily, every year. I remember at the beginning of the year, they kind of got rid of bail. And so crime was gonna go up anyway. And then during the pandemic, it just got way worse. And people breaking into storefronts, and basically neighborhoods that I had been living and working in for many years, were kind of all boarded up, and it’s very sad.
And it kind of led to me kind of leaving New York when it was just like, “I just feel like right now, this is not the New York of 9/11, and it's not the New York of Hurricane Sandy.” We don't talk about Hurricane Sandy as like a great moment in New York. But looking back, it really was, now it just feels so heavy living there. It just feels like a burden living there. And it doesn't feel like, “Oh, this is it.” It's no longer we're all in this together, especially with the pandemic. It’s like anyone who's near you is a potential disease vector. So we're definitely not in it with them. So it's partially that, partially the political climate, and partially just the bad leadership. And I don't think it'll be like that forever. New York City has been through a lot, but it doesn't feel like one of those times where it's like, the people are gonna rise up and bounce back immediately. And that's why I'm out for now.
Aaron: Well, let's shift gears a little bit. You asked me about my favorite episode, but what's what's your favorite episode from this year?
Max: So I already wrote that down. That is clearly another one that we did that we were recording past midnight. And it was titled, Biden joins the Podoverse and Smart Toilets. So I think we spent part of the time—did we spend part of time slamming Joe Biden's podcast? Is that what we were doing?
Aaron: We were straight up slamming it, but I think we made some constructive suggestions...
Max: Constructive criticizing it.
Aaron: ...which were pretty harsh.
Max: Yes. Well, I don't think he has a podcast anymore. He has this other job now. Although I wish he would still do a podcast. But I...
Aaron: I know at some point, presidential radio, weekly radio addresses, were pretty par for the course. I'm pretty sure Obama did them and just nobody listened to them. But I'm guessing that's something that Trump has not been doing. And somebody must be shoving those into an RSS feed where you could listen to them podcast style.
Max: Well, I could listen to his speeches, I'm sure.
Aaron: We'll see what Biden's speechifying looks like come...
Max: Episode 135, Corn Pop. And then also in that episode, we talked about smart toilets. Let me pull up the show notes for that because that was like...
Aaron: My initial thought was “Oh, that's a highbrow/lowbrow episode.” But I think...
Max: I think it was all...
Aaron: We may have been lowbrow across the board there.
Max: That's what we should go. Right, right. So it was like, “What, did somebody come up with the smart toilet?” I'm just looking at our links here and I see anus scans. I don’t know why we were getting into that, but that was...
Aaron: Why? I think that was a toilet that literally takes a picture. It takes a picture of a portion of your anatomy to identify biometrically who the user of the toilet is, so that it can match all of its other sensory test results.
Max: It's more secure than a thumbprint, I guess. Just do a face. Just like—why don't we just use it for our phones. Little bit a lot of things come up in the lockdowns that, yes, I don't know. So anyway, that was a long episode. We basically ragged on this stuff for what, an hour and 16 minutes? Oh, my God. All right, so that I think is my favorite for the year. That's one that I'm like, yes, definitely go back to that one. If I have a long drive coming up, I'm going to turn on Episode 114. And see what we talked about. Let's see. So, what else? Is there anything else that?
Aaron: I think we haven't mentioned crypto yet which has been kind of a recurring theme. Not just this season, but certainly this season for this year.
Max: Sure. And there was a recent surge. And I told a lot of people there was going to be a surge in price at the end of this year. And I am glad it came true. But a lot of stuff happened in crypto this year. We talked—first of all, we talked to Naomi Brockwell about it. She's kind of an expert in crypto and Bitcoin. Well, that was mostly about COVID that one. But I think we were talking about encryption laws and internet freedom And basically, there have been a lot of laws proposed on Bitcoin, specifically. On one hand, it seems like governments are not trying to kill it, but they're trying to make it more difficult. But they're not really focused on it. It's a kind of a strange situation where people are like, “Oh, is Biden going to kill...” Yes?
Aaron: I was just saying that at the beginning of the year, we were still in a world where Libra, the Facebook coin was still a thing that might happen.
Max: It changed its name. And now it's going to be called something else. Libra Facebook coin.
Aaron: Yes, there’s a lot of concern about big business this government co-opting crypto.
Max: Yes, no, it really hadn't. Now it's called DM. So Libra is now called DM, but I don't see it going—I mean, they still want to launch next year, but I don't see it. And now it's going to be kind of a stable coin. So there's no point in investing in it.
And what's interesting about Bitcoin is for years and years and years, I've heard people say, “Well, this is not useful until you could buy a cup of coffee with it, and the average person will use it.” And yet, the price goes up and up and up, and the average person is not using it.
And I see no reason why a Facebook coin that is not good for an investment because it's pegged to the dollars it’s pegged to the stable amount, so you'll get interest on it, I don't see why that would be a compelling investment. Maybe it would help with online payments in certain circumstances, like if you're paying someone in another country. I don't know if that would really help. It kind of remains to be seen as—it's not really a cryptocurrency.
Aaron: If that's the use case, then we're not the target audience. And I don't know enough about the people that do use those—make those kinds of transactions to make an assessment of whether this would actually be attractive.
Max: Yes. So we talked at the beginning of the end of crypto winter, people were very down on Bitcoin and Blockchain in 2019. We talked about the havening when Bitcoin continues to contract the money supply. Right on schedule, these havening events are things that are kind of set in stone at the beginning, where the number of new supply that comes out that are issued every day is cut in half.
But what's, kind of, what's news about it is that, A.) It happened on schedule. And that there are effects that when you cut the supply of something you see six months later, when the current supply runs out, you get a run on price. That was my theory, and that's what happened. And also, it's amazing how many people I've spoken to about Bitcoin who don't believe that the havening is really baked in. Like they think, “Oh, someone could change it, and they'll just create more Bitcoin.” But as this keeps going, goes to show you, just can't do that. It's hard for people to wrap their heads around.
Aaron: I think that's something that's technically feasible. But, as I understand it, you would have to get a unrealistic amount of the existing Bitcoin holders on board with it to basically rewrite the rules, right?
Max: Well, you could have miners start mining with new software that's not compatible with the old software that...
Aaron: But that would just be a fork, right?
Max: ...issues Bitcoin. Yes, it would just be a fork, it would be like Bitcoin2. And what do you think the value of Bitcoin2 would be in relation to Bitcoin? Much lower because now, so who would actually join that?
Aaron: Right.
Max: We talked about this heist, right? The 16 year old kid that stole millions of dollars in someone's Bitcoin. That’s what makes me really stressed about like, actually handling this stuff. One of the things that I've been really trying to think about because a lot of people in the Bitcoin crypto community use this phrase, “Not your keys, not your coin.” Have you ever heard about that? Have you ever heard that phrase?
Aaron: Mostly from you. But yes, I've heard it mentioned in a couple other places as well.
Max: Right? Right. It's like, okay, you should hold it yourself. Unfortunately, and we've talked about this before in the show, holding it yourself, your security is not going to be as good as somebody, as a real expert holding it for you. And so, at some point, maybe you do need to trust someone. And so it's sort of like, is it best maybe to have a hybrid solution where you have the equivalent of some cash under your mattress, but also like, some with a reputable organization? I don't know. Like, if you're not trying to hide it.
Aaron: It’s the same kind of arguments you get with any sort of internet security. It's, “Do I set up my own cloud?” And there's plenty of open source freely available or cheaply available software to allow you to do that. Or, “Do I trust that Google or Amazon or Microsoft?” Because they've got entire teams of security engineers working on it, are able to provide a superior product that is worth whatever the downsides of going through this third party might be.
Max: Yes, they're always purists though, they're saying you can't have pure freedom unless you control them yourself. And I'm trying to reconcile those two ideas, I'm honestly having a hard time doing that.
Aaron: The closest thing I can think of to an analogy would be that kind of like in the prepper community, there's a lot of emphasis on precious metals.
Max: Right.
Aaron: So, you’re gold and silver coins, because if—let's forget exactly how we get there. But in a world where civilization has collapsed then you've got some medium for exchange. But that doesn't really translate that well to crypto, I feel like because in that kind of post apocalyptic world, where your old silver coins might be useful, you Bitcoin is gonna be pretty equal levels of utility, whether you had your own keys or whether you were going through some sort of online…
Max: It depends on what kind of collapse it is like. Bitcoin can actually survive the Internet going down. You could have like a very rudimentary communications network that can keep it going. But yes, I don't know. First of all, if there's a collapse of that magnitude, you've probably more things to worry about. I don't know. Again, how valuable is silver really going to be? It's basically in that case it's, “Can you grow your own food and know what to eat?”
Aaron: Yes, there's a lot of skills that are gonna be more valuable than physical objects.
Max: Machine learning engineer, not doing too well. Can tell you that much.
Aaron: I mean, unless this is one of those robot apocalypses. If you can program the robots.
Max: Yes, get them into an infinite loop or something. Have them divided by zero.
Aaron: Man, now, I want to go back and watch the Terminator movies again.
Max: Yes.
Aaron: Back when they were good movies.
Max: Unfortunately, I could—yes. What would I do? I would give it bias training data, and they'd go over there. I don't know. What are you talking about? Okay. So let's see. So, lots of stuff this year. Next year is going to be even more exciting on The Local Maximum. And I'm not just saying that because like, that's going to be more exciting. But I do think we have an opportunity to grow in 2021 in a way that we didn't didn't in 2020, just because of the unique circumstances surrounding 2020.
So, let's talk about what we hope to do next year on The Local Maximum. First of all, grow the size Locals community at maximum.locals.com. I think I like this model of—first of all, I'm very grateful for people helping us out like, it was so amazing, the people I don't know, are going and paying $4 a month, and then you have access to all of my posts on maximum.locals.com. And you could join in the conversation, which is great. But also, it doesn't cost that much. And it's really helping out going directly into keeping this content up, keeping it available and helping us spend more time on it. So I am grateful for that. And I think in 2021, we'll get to our 100, our members of 100 people supporting it, which I think should be fairly easy to attain.
Aaron: Yes, absolutely. Looking forward to—we, like you said, we've already had some discussion going on there and growing that to be a more interactive community.
Max: Yes, I also think I'm going to add—so I've only been doing it for like four months or so, four or five months adding questions to the website, those articles that I still definitely have time to do. And because they're so good for SEO, and they're such useful articles, and they're helpful for my research, I'm going to continue to do those. So, that will be great.
Now, I've been thinking about what my guest strategy should be for 2021. So you might have noticed for the last six months, I've had fewer guests, and that's okay focusing on this stuff. But I want to get more guests. And the question I always ask is, “What am I optimizing for?” Do I want to have guests that are really going to grow the show, if they tweet it out, or send it out? Do I want to have guests who maybe have other shows that maybe can get on their show. I've done that as well.
But I really want to focus next year, I've decided on the people that I would really, really like to talk to. And usually they're bigger name people, but like just people I would like to talk to. And I'm just going to write a list and I'm going to send out a bunch of messages at the beginning of the year because people aren't paying attention right now, and see who I can get. Because I think that would just be the best experience for the listeners, it would be the best experience for me the host, frankly. And I think it also could, in a way lead to more opportunities for growth, just because there'll be better shows and they'll still be big guests. But if it's a better conversation, they're more likely to share it, etc.
Aaron: Yes, that's a very build it and they will come approach here. Create the quality content and all else will follow.
Max: Yes. So what hopes do you have for 2021 for The Local Maximum?
Aaron: Oh, boy, I'm looking forward to the next tech retreat.
Max: Oh, yes.
Aaron: Fingers crossed on what that's gonna look like.
Max: Where should we hold it? Maybe we should go back to Rhode Island again.
Aaron: Yes, that could be.
Max: I don’t know.
Aaron: That could be an interesting change of scene.
Max: Yes.
Aaron: But I mean, so much is gonna depend on because that'll be this coming spring, right?
Max: Like, if there is still a Rhode Island. I hope so. Yes, you're right.
Aaron: But yes, I mean, I'm always interested in the guests that you get on because invariably, there's interesting discussion going on there. I guess the biggest thing that the show brings to me is it forces me to kind of think outside my comfort zone on stuff, a couple times a month, have conversations that I'm not necessarily having.
But there's some things we talked about that would normally be around the watercooler discussion, but we always take it a level further than that. So it's a chance for me to kind of grow my own mental boundaries if nothing else there, and hopefully folks are getting something out of it as well.
Max: Yes, especially during this time when we're not really in the office as much. You're not having as many office discussions. And then I found that even the last few years office discussions have, it's you go to the lunch table, and they're talking about politics and you're like, “All right, I'll leave.” But it's like, people don't talk about cool stuff anymore.
Aaron: Yes, I'll tell you that's one thing I did not miss, not being in the office for the last nine months or whatever is going down to the cafeteria and seeing Fox and CNN and MSNBC on the three big screens down in the cafeteria.
Max: Really.
Aaron: At least, one of them always had sports on, not like that I care about it.
Max: They torture you like that, huh?
Aaron: Yes.
Max: Yes, no, I...
Aaron: Building management likes there...
Max: I do miss the office. Let me tell you something that I did the other day. It was our last day in the office. And we had a little fun budget for our team that it was like use it or lose it by the end of the year, but there's really nothing you could do. So I got a zip car, and I drove to Peter Luger’s and I got steaks, and I drove them back to the office, not just steaks but also the cream spinach, and the bacon, and the potatoes, and the tomatoes, and all that stuff.
Aaron: Nice, old style steakhouse.
Max: Yes. So that was a fun way to end the year. Oh, another thing that happened this year, it's not really Local Maximum. But, Marsbot for AirPods, which we launched at Foursquare. And something exciting, I actually got Rob Bernstein, who is the comedian who I've had on this show a few times to make some content about it.
So basically, if you go down near the Comedy Cellar in New York City, it's like near MacDougal Street, there’s a bunch of bars and stuff around there. You basically walk around there if you have Marsbot audio, he comments and all the stuff that's going on. So, that update to the app is gonna go out early next year, and I'm really excited about that.
Aaron: So cool.
Max: Yes, I basically told him, just make content for me. Don't get me fired. And there are only one or two things that I had to remove. But...
Aaron: Say, you got to be careful. He might see that as a challenge.
Max: Yes, no, I know. But no, he did a good job. There is even a few that he said, “This is iffy,” and I decided to keep it in. The thing is, I was not personally offended by anything that he performed, but there is some stuff that he does in his comedy where I'm like, “No, that's wrong.” Not that I wouldn't go. It's just like some of the stuff—he was worried about giving places negative reviews.I'm okay with that. It's more like—yes, I don't know. It was pretty much...
Aaron: I struggle with that. I know, we've talked about this before about how the thumbs up and thumbs down versus the 10 point rating scale. And what does a maybe really mean. But I have so much trouble giving a negative review because like, I got food delivered by an unnamed food delivery and passenger driving service this past week.
And the driver did not follow the instructions I put in the order. But I couldn't bring myself to give him a thumbs down because that just felt too harsh.
Max: Yeah. No, no. I was actually trying his content the other day. So I went by myself down to MacDougal Street from Flatiron where Iwas. And walked around and I was just, I was cracking up, I walked by Insomnia Cookies, and he was like, “This cookie has no structural integrity.” I was like, “This is great stuff.This is good stuff.” So I'm really excited about it. And I hope we get more people who are interested in creating that kind of content.
Aaron: Well, I will give a couple of last minute ratings here that I'm not afraid to give. 2020 as a year, thumbs down.
Max: Oh, yes.
Aaron: 2020 for The Local Maximum? Thumbs up. And 2021 is definitely going to be a thumbs up.
Max: Yes.
Aaron: That's my statement. I'm sticking to it.
Max: So, 2021 is going to be a great year. Now, to be fair, I said that about 2020 last year. So my track record on that is not so great. But...
Aaron: We had a couple good months there. We can work that ambiguous phrasing of the question magic in there, too.
Max: I feel like we're both so optimistic right now. I don't know what happened. I don't want to jinx it. But I felt like last time we spoke we were like, “Yes, 2020 still got some time to mess with us one more time.” I think now we actually feel like we're out of the woods, which could be scary because we might not be, but actually I feel like we are.
Aaron: I think the combination of practically being one in the morning and this being not after a long week of work has put us in a much more susceptible to optimism mood. So, let's take that and run with it.
Max: All right. Let's take that and run with it. I guess, I will. This is the last episode of the year. So, we'll come back next year on The Local Maximum. Everybody, have a great new year. And I usually say, “Have a great week everyone,” but have a great new year, everyone and see you in 2021.
Aaron: 2021, everybody.
Max Sklar: That's the show. To support The Local Maximum, sign up for exclusive content and their online community at maximum.locals.com. The Local Maximum is available wherever podcasts are found. If you want to keep up, remember to subscribe on your podcast app. Also, check out the website with show notes and additional materials at localmaxradio.com. If you want to contact me, the host, send an email to localmaxradio@gmail.com. Have a great week.
