Episode 126 - Electoral Systems: Models vs Reality
As the US elections approach, we once again face the contentious issue about the Electoral College system. Whether this system is fair or not is entirely subject to our opinion. However, we can look at mathematical models to figure out just how ideal this current voting system is.
Understanding how our votes become our reality is vital in our decision-making process. Therefore, we should exercise our civic duty as citizens to cast our votes on Election Day.
This is the second episode of a two-part series on the Electoral College and how the President of the United States is elected. In this episode, Ernie Dronenburg talks about his experience being a member of the Electoral College and how it works from the inside.
Afterward, Max discusses the different models of voting systems in social choice theory: Rankings, Condorcet Methods, Condorcet Paradoxes, Monotone Boolean Functions, and Shapley values. He ends with a discussion of how mathematical models of voting do not match the social dynamics of a real election, the advantages of the electoral college, and what reforms to look for in the current system.
Tune in to the episode to learn more about the mathematical models behind voting!
About Ernie Dronenburg
Ernie Dronenburg was a presidential elector in the state of California in 1980 for Ronald Reagan. He has been serving in San Diego politics for more than 20 years and is the current San Diego County Assessor-Recorder-Clerk.
To know more about Ernie, visit his bio and office website.
Sponsor: Brilliant
Get 20% off an annual subscription to Brilliant by signing up at brilliant.org/LocalMaximum.
Check out Brilliant’s course on voting paradoxes if you want to learn more about the theories covered in this episode!
Learn to think: Build quantitative skills in math, science, and computer science with fun and challenging interactive explorations.
Here are three reasons why you should listen to the full episode:
Learn about mathematical models and social choice theory regarding voting.
Develop a broader perspective on the properties of the Electoral College system.
Understand how models compare to reality and what reforms are possible to improve the election process.
Resources
Related Episodes
Episode 125 on the Electoral College
Episode 98 with Alex Andorra on Condorcet Methods
Episode 92 on using Ranked Choice Voting in the United States
Episode 72 on the Shapley Power Index
Episode 48 with Daniel Kronovet on Social Choice Theory
Episode Highlights
How to Become an Elector
Each state has unique rules on who gets to be a member of the Electoral College.
In California, each presidential candidate submits a list of people they want as their elector. Some states use the same approach, while others don’t.
There are electors, and then there are alternate electors.
From Ernie’s experience, it is easy to get into the elector list if you have a position in the candidate’s statewide campaign.
The Electoral Vote Process
Some states have a winner-take-all electoral vote policy. Meanwhile, some are portioned.
During the 1980 elections in California, electors wrote who they’re voting for on a card.
If it wasn’t for the electoral college, small states would be disenfranchised.
The Condorcet Method & the Spoiler Effect
Nicolas de Condorcet, a French philosopher and mathematician, put forth a social choice model of an election.
Basically, this method focuses on preference by electing a candidate through ranking.
The first-past-the-post election system is fine if there are two candidates. However, the spoiler effect occurs when a third candidate comes in and wins. This is especially the case when the other two candidates are very similar and are splitting the votes.
The Condorcet method aims to remove the spoiler effect but poses problems of its own such as paradoxes and cycles.
The Arrow’s Impossibility Theorem
Developed by economist Kenneth Arrow, it shows that there is no perfect voting system.
A perfect voting system has to be non-dictatorship, unanimous, and independent from irrelevant alternatives.
There is always a degree of strategic voting and, going further, strategic candidate selection.
Monotone Boolean Functions & the Dedekind Number
This is a decision-making process regarding the actions that groups of people want to take.
This process shows that there are exponentially different possible arrangements with a certain number of alternatives.
The number of different decision functions or voting systems for n people is called the Dedekind’s number for n.
Listen to the full episode to hear the analogy of two parents' decision-making process!
The Shapley Number
The best way to measure the voting power of an individual in a voting system is through the Shapley number.
Think of a “majority rules” voting scenario where someone holds 60% of the votes. This person doesn’t have 60% of the power; they have 100% of the power because they will always win. The weight of the vote, in this instance, is misleading.
However, distilling the voting power to the Shapley number loses a lot of information.
What Mathematical Models Ignore
These idealistic models ignore the information-gathering and campaigning phases.
Voters who don’t gather information about specific candidates could vote based on political parties.
Models also don’t take into account the voting environment and individual or group interests.
Swing states are also not covered in the social choice models discussed.
How to Improve the US Elections
Being transparent about the cycles would illuminate a lot about the political stalemate in the United States. Local Electoral Colleges might also be a good thing.
Reforming primary party systems could help voters end up with candidates that they actually want.
On Changing the Voting System
A national popular election seems fair on the surface but would give the federal government more control over the elections.
Overall, a national popular vote hosts a lot of problems that could recur in decades.
To sum up, people who want change in the election system should focus on what the goal is and what fairness is truly about.
5 Powerful Quotes from This Episode
On electing the candidate with the most votes: “We can listen to more specific issues behind that slogan, whether it's voter disenfranchisement or some voters having more power over the others. That's all fair game. But it's got to be a deeper discussion than that because whoever gets the most votes ought to win really depends on the election system that we're choosing.”
“The weight of your vote is actually kind of misleading in some instances.”
“You'd have to ask people: what is the goal of the voting system that you're trying to advocate for or that you're trying to design? Because I think that when people ask for a different voting system, they often don't think about it. They often say, “Well, this change is more fair.” But what's the goal? What is fairness?”
“There's no perfect experiments in politics, and even the observational data is kind of slim, so it's very difficult to draw inferences from that.”
“[The] Electoral College shouldn't be treated as some perfect machine established by the Founders. But we have to remind ourselves the purpose it serves, and it's kind of a really fascinating look on public choice and elections and how to balance the interests in a country and spread it around over different constituencies.”
Enjoy the Podcast?
Are you hungry to learn more about how the Electoral College works? Do you want to expand your perspective further? Subscribe to this podcast to learn more about A.I., technology, and society.
Leave us a review! If you loved this episode, we want to hear from you! Help us reach more audiences to bring them fresh perspectives on society and technology.
Do you want more people to understand the Electoral College? You can do it by simply sharing the takeaways you've learned from this episode on social media!
You can tune in to the show on Apple Podcasts, Soundcloud, and Stitcher. If you want to get in touch, visit the website, or find me on Twitter.
To expanding perspectives,
Max
