Episode 85 - Metaculus: Aggregating emotions, expertise, and data into Prediction Engine
Part 2 of Max's discussion with Anthony Aguirre, cofounder of the Metaculus prediction engine. Topics include:
The difference between making short term, long term, and theoretical predictions
The human mind and human emotions - as imperfect as they are - being world's best tool for prediction making
Calibrating your probabilities, on an individual and group level
Predictions of humor-detecting AI, waking up after being cryogenically frozen, and political developments
Links
Check out Metaculus! Let me know if you’ve made any predictions.
Anthony Aguirre’s Website: https://www.anthony-aguirre.com/
Inverse: The Crowd Sees Tomorrow Coming
Rationally Speaking Podcast Interview of Anthony Aguirre
Tech2025 Podcast
Tech2025 Past Event: Figuring out the Future with Metaculus
Max’s Predictions on Metaculus
Will Brexit happen by End of Day, October 31st 2019?
I said 60% but I’m having second thoughts due to my non-understanding of UK politics. There’s a change that I’ll miss just because there’s a several week extension.
Will Trump be re-elected in 2020?
I gave it 55% due to the slight edge that incumbency has given in American history. Trumps low approval ratings vs the quality of the democratic candidates is a wash.
Will Facebook’s Libra Initiative Launch by October 1st 2020?
I went with a bold 15% here. As I discussed with Maryam in episode 72, large companies are very bad at getting these things out quickly, and they are bogged down in regulatory oversight. I would say 1%, but they I realized the calibration!
When will any country have a life expectancy at birth for both sexes of at least 100 years?
I put 2048 plus or minus 10 years. You’d need to have some breakthroughs in anti-aging before this happens, and I don’t think it’ll happen to the extend needed over the next decade. I think (hope) that our species’ investments in AI and information technology will help us start making progress within a generation.
Related Episodes
Episode 84 for the first part of my chat with Anthony Aguirre on the Nature of the Universe
Episode 83 on the AI Debate between Elon Musk and Jack Ma
Episode 75 on the Unpredictability in Cryptocurrency Markets with Jeffrey Tucker
Episode 74 on predicting the End Of Civilization
Episode 72 on Facebook’s Libra Currency, and our predictions on that which I put on Metaculus
Episode 65 on estimating the probability of events that have never occured
Episode 38 on The Local Maximum Tech Retreat with prediction analysis from our expert panel
Episode 30 on Predicting the Outcome of Game of Thrones
