Episode 115 - Surprises in the Coronavirus Models

Today Max dives into the Coronavirus pandemic models. He talk generally about statistical models of this sort, and how epidemiological models are usually performed. Then, he finds that the models followed by the state and federal governments do nothing of the sort!

Also:
- What actions should individuals and governments take?
- Do lockdowns affect viral spread?
- What's the story with asymptomatic people?

Links

The IHME Model
Healthdata.org: Real time updates and results from the IHME Model
Medrxiv.org: Paper from the IHME Explaining their Methodology

Reactions to the IHME Model
Berkeley Paper: Caution Warranted: The IHME models have no Epidemiological Basis
- This is an interesting paper by Nicolas P Jewell (et al) that I did not go into in the episode, which has more criticisms of the IHME methodology.
New York Times Opinion (Also From Nicolas Jewell): Social distancing Policies enacted 2 week too late, impacted death tolls
Vox: Why it’s so hard to see into the Future of Covid-19
Bleeding Heart Libertarians: We should not Defer Only to Epidemiologists
AP News: Uncertainty is the only Certainty

Tutorials on Epidemilogy Models in General
Christian Hubbs (datahubbs.com): Links and Tutorials on Modeling Pandemics
Artificially Intelligent: Covid-19, Location Data, and more with Max Sklar
Numberphile: The Coronavirus Curve and SIR Models
Wolfram: March 24 Live Stream of Exploring Pandemic Data

Questions About the Number of Asymptomatic People and True Death Rate
US News: Epidemiologists still don’t know the Death Rate
Bloomberg: 1 in 7 New Yorkers May have already gotten Covid-19
Washington Examiner: Random Sampling shows Coronavirus more Widespread than Previously Thought
The conversation: Test Randomly to Understand how many people have Coronavirus

Times of Israel: Professor claims Virus Play itself out, with policy having little effect
Professor Ben Israel: Article with his Argument and Supporting Data (and hotly debated in comments)
Fox 4: 3.8 Percent Positive in random test in Johnson County, Kansas
New York Times: Germany enacts broad Random Tests for antibodies

The Fat Emperor Podcast: Risk Management and Coronavirus Strategies

Related Episodes

Episode 110 with our first Coronavirus episode (cohosted with Aaron)
Episode 107 with Bob Murphy on Classes of Uncertainty
Episode 98 with Alex Andorra on Bayesian Stats and Hierarchical Models
Episode 71 with Tassos Noulas on Urban Data Science, Mobility Models